Has Italy's Death from Covid-19 Peaked?
6 april
So far, more than 16.000 people in Italy have lost the battle against Cobid-19. For many days now, daily death toll in Italy is very high. But while it has approached a 1000 deaths a day in Italy since the end of March, so far the deaths did not exceed that value, thankfully.
For now, the daily deaths seem to be rather stagnant. Fluctuating around (approximately) 800 for about 2 weeks now. In Wuhan the deaths plateaud for ~2 weeks as well. There seems to be reason for carefull hope.
It is clear that the daily deaths in Italy has been plateauing for 2 weeks now. It might even be said that the last few days there is a downward trend. While some days it is still increasing, it appears that the peak was 10 days ago (28 march), When 969 people died. The last seven days, the daily death count was below 800. The last three days it was even below 700. This gives reason to think the peak is over and the virus is declining.
The final shape of the cumulative deaths should be logistic. Which means it increases exponentially at first, then halfway through changes to a logarithmic shape. The exponential part is clear to see, and as this part is plateauing the logarithmic part should start to be revealed.